Current Political scene in India-Mahabharata Repeated

Well, this has been a very happening year for Indian politics. That is pretty much what I followed all throughout the year. To put it in a nutshell, this is the 1st year when I followed India’s political drama unfold on a day to day basis.

I had a lot of expectation from Manmohan Singh the financial expert, but I thought he would be an able prime minister too. But he proved to be a disaster especially in 2007 and early 2008. He might have well brought an end to the congress party itself though the party members always deny such speculations. Let us just analyze the fortunes of some major political parties in India and the way they performed in 2007-08 and what implications these results will have in the near future.

It all started with the land of warriors, Punjab. Despite all the allegations by Amarinder Singh and other congress workers, the Akali Dal and BJP had a resounding victory. It was too bad that Dr. Singh could not go there with Sonia Gandhi and say we will introduce Urdu in schools. They could not manufacture any divisive card as this one of India’s most educated states, where the Sikhs and the Hindus live in complete harmony. I am sure Uttaranchal did not want to see the face of the congress anymore either and they voted BJP to power.

With UP under Mayawati, Gujarat with Modi and Himachal; back with BJP, does the Congress have any hold over North India anymore? Let us just look at India’s political map from the north all the way to Tamil Nadu excluding the north eastern states (not because we can neglect them, but simply because their representation in the Lok Sabha is minimal and hence they don’t affect the political map much). The south was the congress bastion, they lost Karnataka now. The BJP finally breached the vindhyas to conquer Karnataka.

Jammu and Kashmir had a weird political combination of PDP and Congress which had its own troughs. The congress has a bunch of morons dictating terms to its workers. The congress got its seats in J&K from the Jammu area, not from the valley. Now not a single Hindu in J&K will vote for congress. They have basically gifted 2 seats to the BJP in the state in the Lok Sabha elections in 2009. They might have well alienated the Hindus all over the country too if the VHP launches a violent agitation. The majority of the Muslims in India live in UP, Bihar and West Bengal and the congress has virtually no base in those 3 states anymore. The BJP has wrested Himachal, Punjab, Uttaranchal, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Karnataka. It has very stable allies in JD (U) and BJD in Bihar and Orissa respectively. It is very unlikely to lose power through anti-incumbency in Bihar and Orissa because you don’t come across leaders like Nitish Kumar and Naveen Patnaik very often. The congress just has presence in Haryana and Delhi. Both these states go for elections soon and in all probability the congress will be voted out just as they were in the Delhi municipal polls conducted recently.

The big question before them is “How likely is the BJP to hold power in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh”. Vasundara Raje has adopted Modi’s policy in her cabinet also by shuffling a lot of ministers before the forthcoming assembly elections so as to negate the anti-incumbency factor. She might have not handled the Gujjar situation very well, but the electoral calculation behind this is worth a look. Gujjar’s make up hardly 3% of Rajasthan’s population. Moreover they are spread out over the state not making them influential in any particular constituency unlike the meenas who opposed the benefits for the gujjars. Mrs. Raje has proved to be a very able administrator and she has carved out a niche for herself in Rajasthan. There are some similarities between the administration in Gujarat and Rajasthan in terms of development. A zero fiscal deficit, increased state output and similar factors. One very important issue the current BJP government has addressed in the state is the drinking water problem. The swajaldhara project may have its own deficiencies, but it is a bold project in its own right. The unemployment rate has gone down and the state has got a face lift. She has been smart enough not to replicate a Chandra babu model of just developing pockets of growth. She has invested time in making changes at the grass root level. These changes are not reflected in one day; they take time, but then 80% of the electorate lives in this belt and are likely to stick with the ruling government. In terms of numbers, things can only get worse for the congress with mayawati cutting into their dalit vote-bank.


A few days back I read a very interesting article on whether the BJP will campaign in prose or poetry for the 2009 Lok Sabha elections. The author was indeed very right in out rightly rejecting the possibility of any congressman campaigning with any style at all. Well things look even worse for the party now. In 2004 it was all quite dicey for the average voter. He did not know who he was voting for. The end result was that congress got a marginal lead over the BJP. Mind you, the congress did not defeat the BJP, they just managed 7 seats more. Even a single state like Gujarat can turn the tables around. The congress got an all time high of 12 seats in 2004 and the BJP got an all time low of 14. They can well forget this in 2009. Coming back to the point, does the congress even have a prime ministerial candidate? Its too bad that NDTV cannot endorse Dr. Manmohan Singh to the aam aadmi. The last time they got away marginally and the anti-incumbency BJP was facing helped them. This time the dreaded word anti-incumbency haunts the congress. Their appeasement policy over the 4 years is going to cost them dear. There was an article on Moditva and the Shrinking space of Hindu Liberalism. This is exactly the causative effect that the congress has created. Whether it will push all the majority votes towards the saffron alliance remains to be seen.

The Congress faces a dozen issues on lack of any development, corruption, excessive minority appeasement and inflation. They have also had a string of losses in state assembly elections and by-elections. Is this the beginning of the end of the grand old party of India? But apart from all these problems the million dollar question that the party faces is “Who is their future leader”? Manmohan Singh was never their leader in the first place and he definitely did not prove to be one during his tenure at the center. Narendra Modi rightly said in one of his speeches in Gujarat “Do you know that we have a prime minister-his name is Manmohan Singh”. Neither does Manmohan Singh have an all party appeal like Vajpayee nor does he have the charisma to attract voters. In fact there will be a lot of dissidence within the congress if he is made the prime minister again. It will be a suicidal move if Sonia Gandhi is announced as the prime ministerial candidate. Not only will such a move give rise to constitutional issues, even the thought of such an idea can prove fatal for the congress with the BJP campaigning in the Hindi belt on the contentious issues like Ram Sethu, Terrorism and related issues. This is going to be one of the biggest issues the congress will face. Who is going to be India’s Prime minister if the congress is elected to power. Well, the congress can only hope to survive with its allies in the UPA who are already breaking away. The congress currently has just over 50% of the seats in the UPA.

It will be interesting to see if its allies agree to a congressman as the prime minister again as in all probability the share of the seats for the congress in the UPA is bound to fall. All these are issues that arise only if the UPA manages to grab power, the chances of which are beginning to look very bleak. If they fancy any chances of even managing the three figure mark, they need to project a prime minister. The BJP or rather the NDA has zeroed in on L.K Advani. We all know what Advani stands for at least a decade ago. It is good for the NDA if Advani declares what he stands for today. I am sure they will at some point before the elections. In fact Advani is already beginning give the NDA a campaign policy and is speaking a lot on development issues and inflation. He is ideally taking the NDA and the BJP along a centrist platform slowly and carefully, so that he does not disillusion the core BJP voters. Statesman Advani is clearly articulating a brilliant agenda wherein the BJP/NDA will retain the core voters as well as pull in many undecided voters.

Irrespective of the debacle that the congress faces within the UPA, once can be rest assured that the congress nominee is going to represent the UPA minus the Left. This leaves us with Rahul Gandhi. He sadly seems to attract only crowds but not any votes. Just imagine the furor it is going to create in the UPA if he is nominated the candidate. The mainstream media will never tell you these issues in the ruling government. They are rather busy talking about the allies that left the NDA 3 years ago. In fact I can only see the NDA getting stronger. They have very strong allies in JD (Bihar), SAD, BJD. All issues with the Shiv-Sena have been sorted out for after all, BJP and Shiv-Sena are two sides of the same coin. The media was so quick to pounce on the small difference they had over the presidential election. It just turned out to be a non-issue finally. This leaves us with some of the parties who seemed to drift towards the day dreaming third front. The left would still like to keep the idea of a third front alive, but it does not seem to realize that the UNPA does not have a single party that can cross the three figure mark. Let us look at some of the political moves of parties that were allegedly a part of UNPA. Jayalalitha’s AIADMK was among the first parties to openly quit the UNPA and any novice in politics can read through her intentions of joining the NDA clearly. The INLD is well on its way to supporting the NDA. All the INLD leaders were present at the swearing ceremonies in Gujarat and Himachal. The AGP in Assam also is all set to go in for a seat sharing agreement with the BJP in future. The TDP is the only major party that left the NDA currently with UNPA. But they hardly have numbers and once the election results come out, it is not going to be long before the TDP comes flocking back to the NDA with external support.

The media would have you to believe that anti-incumbency will remove BJP out of MP, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan. While these are totally speculative, one forgets the fact that the state assembly elections in these states has had no effect whatsoever on the Lok Sabha polls in these areas. Whether it is Digvijay Singh or Chauhan, MP and Chhattisgarh have always voted for BJP in the Lok Sabha elections. The same is the case in Rajasthan too. Even when congress was ruling at the state level, these states have consistently favored a BJP government at the center. So now which kind of anti-incumbency is the mainstream media talking about? In fact the congress is bound to lose all its seats in Delhi and also Maharashtra in a big way.

“My Life My Country – Lal Kishen Advani”, the book has further stepped up Advani’s stature. It would be political blunder by the congress if it attempts to play around here because that is akin to playing with fire. This congress game of not announcing their candidate in any election is going to cost them dear. Gone are those hey days of the grand old party when people knew who would be their leader if the party was voted to power. Now neither do we know their chief ministerial or prime ministerial candidates nor do they seem to show any intention of announcing their candidates.

And now the fun begins!!!!!

Now the stage is all set. The seed of change has sprouted out of the state of Gujarat. I am not overstating if I optimistically claim that the country’s political contours are changed forever. In my previous article I have categorically rejected the anti-incumbency factor spoiling BJP’S chances in the 2008 state assembly elections in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. I just don’t get it, people just keep writing about electoral prospects of various parties without even knowing an iota of what happened 5 years ago in the previous election. In all probability the NDA is all set to regain power even without the need of any external support. Now the NDA has unanimously anointed LK Advani as the prime minister. There is no denying the fact that he does deserve it, but I guess he should ideally stay in the post for a couple of years when Narendra Modi can adorn the chair of the home minister. Beyond two years, he will be really stretching it. I guess at that stage Advani would be gracious enough to step down and let Modi take over. Now then the fun begins. Clean administration, focus on infrastructure, zero tolerance towards terror and above all a slow sense of pride in nationalism. This year is really an “AGNI-PARIKSHA” for the BJP. If they can retain these three states and win Delhi assembly there is no stopping on their way to New Delhi.

Narayan ke Darshan kaun karwayega

In the dwaparayuga, Guru Drona said "Arjun tho woh Nar hai jo Narayan ke darshan karwayega", and the question is "Bharath ko is Kaliyug mein Narayan ke darshan kaun karwayega"? Jiske naam mein Nar tho hai hi, aur jo narayan ka bhakth bhi hai aur jo is mahan desh mein ram rajya stapith kar saktha hai wahi humhe Narayan ke darshan bhi karwayega. The answer in short is my political idol "NARENDRA MODI".

The guy has all the qualities of a great leader and is viciously maligned by the pseudo secular media. Now the stage is all set. The seed of change has sprouted out of the state of Gujarat. I am not overstating if I optimistically claim that the country’s political contours are changed forever. In my previous article I have categorically rejected the anti-incumbency factor spoiling BJP’S chances in the 2008 state assembly elections in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. I just don’t get it, people just keep writing about electoral prospects of various parties without even knowing an iota of what happened 5 years ago in the previous election. In all probability the NDA is all set to regain power even without the need of any external support. Now the NDA has unanimously anointed LK Advani as the prime minister. There is no denying the fact that he does deserve it, but I guess he should ideally stay in the post for a couple of years when Narendra Modi can adorn the chair of the home minister. Beyond two years, he will be really stretching it. I guess at that stage Advani would be gracious enough to step down and let Modi take over. Now then the fun begins. Clean administration, focus on infrastructure, zero tolerance towards terror and above all a slow sense of pride in nationalism. This year is really an “AGNI-PARIKSHA” for the BJP. If they can retain these three states and manage to win or even end up as the single largest party in Karnataka, there is no stopping on their way to New Delhi.

The only mass leader who had the guts and the poise to promise us this after the bombay blasts in 2006. Modi tho yeh pratigya kiya "Yeh jo koon bahaya, yeh awashya rang layega". Maharaj Bharat ki Vanshaj will inspire India to new heights and "Mia Musharaff, Kashmir ko kya, pakistan ko hi bhooljao".

Jai Hind

Come watch the semi-finals in karnataka

This ought to be the biggest state election before the Lok Sabha Elections next year. From an party and people stand point of view, karnataka has all the elements that make up a national election. Two main parties, a spoiler who does not let a party have a simple majority. The demographics of karnataka also roughly resemble that of India in terms of caste and religion. The north of karnataka is a BJP stronghold and the south has congress and JD(S) strongholds. This is just a mini India. Well in any event, this is going to be first state election that is going to put my analysis to test. I just hope it does not come a cropper.

Here is my take

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pkMyOUr8Pm30iCYUie3dPKA

U means Unpredictable (no discernible trend in such seats and too much trading)

Tossup means seats which are fought on very close margins.

Here are some analysis stats

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pkMyOUr8Pm30NYoCTL_MaRQ

That has a bit of vote share calculations and trend lines.

Among the tossups and unpredictable seats left (86) BJP needs to wrest 27. I am not able to exactly predict what kind of a vote share is needed to wrest that 27. Of the 86 seats 42 are tossups meaning fought on close margins.

Of these 42 seats, BJP is a strong competitor in 30 seats as the remaining 12 are close contests between congress and JD(S). Well they would extremely lucky if they can get the 27 seats from those tossups without having to depend on those 44 unpredictable seats.

Of the 44 unpredictable seats the BJP is in contention for 22 of them. They should not expect more than 5. Ideally they should get 22 of the tossups and try 5 of the unpredictables.

I just have a gut feeling that they will end up with something in the range of 105-110 seats which might end up as a parody unless independents get 5-10 seats. If JD(S) or congress have a say even after BJP gets 100+ seats its disaster again for karnataka.

The grand numbers of 2009

I believe in numbers and I strongly believe they are the best benchmarks for political predictions unless a big national phenomenon breaks out. I am frankly sick and tired of reading articles by columnists who have no clue of the ground reality and numbers, people like arun nehru who believe in writing nonsense in flamboyant english, someone who goes to the extent of saying BSP will win 50 lok sabha seats in 2009. Anyway what they write is their prerogative, I just wish better sense prevailed among the editors who publish such articles. I dont want to quote names or pull out numbers of all the columnists who ramble on a topic to make a few bucks. Political analysis can be biased to some extent, but it should not just lead to a drivel with no numbers to support your claims. Here I present a summary of my effort over the last 6 months. Some publications (I mean well screened political journals, not media publications) did help me arrive at some conclusions. But for all practical purposes it was www.eci.gov.in that helped me all the way and economic and political weekly to an extent. Whats written or rambled here is a very unorganized brief summary of my findings and predictions for the 2009 General elections.

you might want to view this spreadsheet below to before you have a look at the summary

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pkMyOUr8Pm31FRd6C_TWwcw

What i refer to as sure seats are seats I expect the party to win for sure based on past electoral trends and vote shares in particular constituencies. The Added seats column shows the number of seats they are likely to win above the sure seats. One can
quite easily opine with just a primitive look at this table and summary that I am a right wing BJP supporter and I have no qualms accepting that nor am I trying to sell the right wing ideology. All I am doing here is just putting forth some numbers which prove my predictions. Please also note that these are Lok Sabha predictions and some Indian states do vote very differently for the Lok Sabha and the State assembly elections. So this analysis presented here is no basis for assembly elections.

Bihar (40) ----------JD, BJP combo with nitish at the helm will get the BJP-JD combo in bihar at least 30 of the 40 lok sabha seats

Gujarat (26) --------Narendra Modi will scare the hell out of congress, they might even lose the deposit in the Lok Sabha polls in gujarat.

Orissa (21) --------Classy administration by BJD-BJP combo led by Naveen Patnaik.

Uttarakhand (5) ---Who can compare himself with the dedication and sincerity of this army general B.C Khanduri


The above four states dont need any analysis. The BJP without its allies will win 14+22+8+4=48 seats just in these 4 states. But I have done a preliminary analysis albeit without vote shares anyway for the heck of it and they prove my numbers.

With the allies the BJP led NDA is likely to win at least 30+22+19+4=75 seats just in these 4 states.
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The state of Rajasthan has good administration with Vasundhara Raje at the helm but we shall still do an analysis on the 25 Lok Sabha seats there.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pkMyOUr8Pm31KJg1AcEl_VQ

Upon Analysis a safe prediction would be that BJP wins 16 seats and the congress 3 for sure. Of the remaining 6 a very reasonable prediction would be 3 to each party. This gives BJP 3 and the Congress 3 seats. Hence the BJP wins a total of 19 seats in Rajasthan.

With this the NDA gets 94 seats on the whole for sure. The seat total for now in these 5 states is 40+26+21+5+25=117

Lets head a bit further north and look at Punjab, Himachal and Delhi next. The 3 combined account fot 24 lok sabha seats together.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pkMyOUr8Pm32uGfSgD-FjFQ

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pkMyOUr8Pm33CyfpM7WWqZw

The SAD-BJP alliance is quite solid in punjab and will win 9 of the 13 seats in punjab. Going by the recent landslide win in himachal for the BJP they are likely to win 3 of the 4 seats in Himachal. The Delhi municipal elections have shown that Delhi is ready to finally throw the corrupt congress out of Indraprastha. This gives them all 7 seats.

These 3 states add 19 seats for the NDA giving them 113 seats of the 141 so far.

Next let us look at Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh which have 40 seats on the whole. For sure the BJP will win 29 of the 40 seats there. In all probability it will win 20+ in MP and 9 in Chhattisgarh.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pkMyOUr8Pm33S3SqV5ukJWQ

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pkMyOUr8Pm320rRd7GCRFbw

With this the BJP led NDA has 142 of the 181 seats so far as a minimum.

Lets head west of the vindhyas into Maha-Rashtra now. Of the 48 lok sabha seats the BJP-Shiv Sena combo will get a 27 seat minimum. The congress appeasement and fake farmer policies are well open to the public here. So 27 is the least they can get now. Rebels won’t help them much, narayan rane is a good example.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pkMyOUr8Pm31d19iGPUqpCA

So where does this put us now: BJP led NDA have 169 of the 229 seats.

Lets now head to karnataka. I would assume that BJP can improve its tally from 18 but to be conservative, I am only sure about 12 seats of the 28 for the BJP there.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pkMyOUr8Pm32Cx9EwcLXHCA

This takes the NDA to 181 of 257 seats. Still need 91 seats to reach that magic figure of 272.

Lets now grab some seats for BJP from the small tiny seats.

In arunachal pradesh I expect them draw a blank this time. Assam they will get only 3 seats if they dont have a seat sharing agreement with AGP. If the top brass of BJP pull AGP into NDA then they stand a good chance of getting 9 of the 14 seats. In goa BJP will get both the seats and they are also likely to get 5 of the 10 seats in Haryana. INLD leaders have shown that they want to keep options open and hence attended the BJP meeting all along and I am sure they will ditch the 3rd front. INLD will contribute 5 seats to the NDA. In Jammu and Kashmir, the BJP will win 2 seats of the 6 for sure.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pkMyOUr8Pm33-vdOavfDSfA

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pkMyOUr8Pm31HsUXlBOKwFQ

Thus the picture so far assuming that AGP is not a part of the NDA is 0+3+2+10+2= 17 of 2+14+2+10+6=34. This puts the NDA at 198 of 291 seats.

The states yet to cover are Andhra, Jharkhand, Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Kerala and some NE States and Islands. All these put together account for 42+14+39+80+42+20+15=252 seats. The NDA still needs 74 seats for an absolute majority. The parody is that so far they have 198 of the 291 seats which is more than 2/3rds representing a parliamentary majority, but these 74 seats of the 252 will make even the 272 of 543 (50% simple majority) an uphill task. In any event 74 of 252 seats is an asking rate of 29%.

Lets see how they can chart out these 74 seats. Mind you that we left some open space for the BJP led NDA in Bihar, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka. In Bihar they can ideally get a maximum of 33, 32 in Maharashtra, 24 in Madhya Pradesh and 18 in Karnataka. So this leaves us with some room for 3+5+4+6= 18 seats. But I would like to leave this open because tossing up these 18 seats to the NDA would be sheer optimism and under estimation of the UPA. If they get it it’s a bonus. The BJP strategy should be to get these 74 seats from the remaining 252 parliamentary constituencies we have not analyzed so far.

From experience and prevailing political scenes in certain areas we can definitely rule out BJP in states like Kerala and West Bengal where they might just salvage one odd seat in Bengal and for sure draw blank in Kerala. So this leaves them with 73 seats needed of 190 seats. It looks like the asking rate is climbing up. The RSS and VHP are trying hard to break the ice in these two communist states and get at least 2-3 more seats that can at least give them a standing ground. Again if a miracle like that happens it is only a bonus and neither we nor the NDA should bank on such miracles for electoral success. Of the NE States, Islands and UT's the NDA can get like 2 of the 15 seats. This gets us to 71 needed from 175 seats. The BJP leadership in Andhra is poor and it is a state that neither had a Hindutva wave like Uttar Pradesh or Gujarat nor a silent saffronization like Karnataka or Madhya Pradesh. I would give BJP just 3 seats of the 42 on just anti-incumbency terms. This gets us to 68 from 133 seats. Now the asking rate is 51%!!!!!!!!!!!

The NDA needs 68 seats from Jharkhand, Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh. Thats a big ask I must say. A big one. Lets analyze Tamil Nadu first where the BJP has an alliance. The best that BJP and ADMK together can salvage with the ongoing DMK-CPI-INC-Vijaykanth alliance is 10 seats. Anything above that can only be attributed to the ever vacillating mood of a Tamil voter.

Now we get to 58 needed from 94 seats at an asking rate of 62%. If this was 1998 I would say "Ha, thats a piece of cake BJP will get that just in UP.". But I am sorry just in 9 years so much has happened in UP with the regional parties making inroads even in the Lok Sabha elections. The dwindling presence of Sangh Workers has only put BJP in the 3rd position here. Realistically they have hit rock bottom in UP. They can’t go any further down. Some aggressive campaigning by BJP can help them, especially with Advani, Rajnath and Modi. But unless something extraordinary turns up, they will be stuck at 15 seats.

Now they need 43 more and they have only Jharkhand left. They can get 10 there and would still need 33.

??????????????????????

There is always a way out of situations like these. One has to first look at seats where you have never won so far and pick out those constituencies where you have been a runner up. The other is to form good alliances, An alliance with AGP go as far as getting them 6 lok sabha seats. 6 seats in this crunch situation is a big jackpot. Next a hidden alliance with NCP will come very handy and if it materializes they can literally sweep Maharashtra putting the congress in dark. Of course they should concentrate on retaining whatever they have as well. If BJP really deserves it I just wish Bhagwan Shri Ram helps them wrest Uttar Pradesh again.

So a brief summary

The NDA will for sure wrest 198 of the 291 seats in the 1st segment and have a potential chance of finally winning somewhere between 207-216 of the 291.

Of the remaining 252 seats the NDA is going to have a hard time. 3 states of Bengal, Kerala and Andhra give BJP just 4 seats in all of the 104 seats they have.

Let us be more realistic in the summary and discount BJP from any seats in the UT's and NE and Islands.

We are left with 133 seats in UP, TN and Jharkhand and NDA needs 272-207-4=61 seats here. An asking rate of 50%.

If the top brass plays the right cards and get an understnding with Arjun Munda and Babulal Marandi then they can salvage a realistic 9 of the 14 seats this
Jharkhand.

This leaves us with the NDA needing 52 seats in TN and UP. As I said the alliance in Assam can get them an extra 6 seats, Jayalalitha can get them 10 seats or more. They would still need 36 seats in UP. 10 years back that was a joke for the BJP, now 36 seats in UP is a dauting task. Their expert committee may do any amount of planning, but they BJP leaders, the Sangh parivar need to be getting their hands dirty and working their way through the path of the Ganges right from Noida to Varanasi. If they can do that I am sure the UP voters will give BJP one more chance.

Advani needs to plan a huge yatra in UP to revive its sagging fortunes in this state which just 9 years back was their bastion.

Another state which BJP should try is Andhra, especially the areas bordering Karnataka where the Sangh has a good presence.

Segment 1----------------------------------Strong/Medium BJP States for Lok Sabha

Himachal
Punjab
Haryana
Uttaranchal
Rajasthan
Madhya Pradesh
Chhattisgarh
Karnataka
Gujarat
Bihar
Goa
Assam (Medium)
Orissa
Delhi
Maharashtra


Segment 2----------------------------------Weak BJP states

Andhra
Tamil Nadu
Uttar Pradesh
West Bengal
Kerala
NE States and Islands.

Segment 3------------------------------They have organization but predictions are tough

Jharkhand
Jammu
Arunachal

So my final take is that the BJP will be the single largest party, but it needs some more effort in its bastion UP to get to power with solid NDA allies, else it will form the government again but with loose partners and TDP external support.

The Myth about BJP facing anti-incumbency in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh

I have been reading a few articles by many so called political analysts on the forthcoming Lok Sabha (National Level) in 2009 and State Assembly elections in many Indian States in 2008. While many have differing conclusions on the final results of the elections, they all have a common line which reads “Congress should do its best to tap the anti-incumbency wave against the BJP in states like Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh”. While anti-incumbency does play a major role in Indian politics, it has been negated many times effectively, the most recent example being that of Narendra Modi (BJP) in Gujarat which might well have a lot of resonance all over the country.


Chhattisgarh

Let us analyze each of these three states beginning with Chhattisgarh. From the state assembly election perspective the state has 90 constituencies all of which were part of Madhya Pradesh prior to 2001. Anti-incumbency is a phenomenon that takes place at local constituency level and not at a state or national level. It might well be the case that local anti-incumbency often culminates to the case of a state level or national level change of government. BJP is a party that shot into fame in 1991 and so it would be wise to statistically analyze all elections after 1991 before making any conclusions about the political fortunes of either the Indian National Congress (INC) or the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

In 1993, in the 90 constituencies which form a part of the current state of Chhattisgarh the INC won in 54, the BJP in 30 and other parties won 6 seats. In 1998 the Congress won 48, the BJP 36 and others 6 seats. In 2003 the BJP won 50, the congress won 37 and others 3 seats. Now here one begins to wonder where the anti-incumbency factor these analysts are talking about stemming from is. My answer is simple “There is no anti-incumbency factor in Chhattisgarh”. The only trend I can see here is that the BJP is increasing its seat share every time. Another interesting trend one should notice is that BJP tends to retain many of its seats. When I talk about retaining seats, I am not talking about winning 5 seats in an election and winning 5 entirely different seats in the next and claiming that the seat share has not gone down. A good trend for any party is to retain seats it won in the previous election meaning that voters in that constituency have faith in them. So from the 3 elections we can arrive at some interesting conclusions.

It is definitely an achievement for a party to retain a seat 3 times consecutively. It reflects either on the capability of the leader in the area or the party organization there. The congress has done this in 11 seats (1993, 1998 and 2003) and the BJP in 10 seats. It would not be unreasonable to assume in Indian politics that in such scenarios the party ends up winning the seat the fourth time also unless something exceptional happens. This ensures 11 seats for the congress in 2008 and 10 for the BJP. Let us denote these as A+ category seats.

The second set of seats is the ones that parties have one twice in a row. Before we look at the constituencies which parties have managed to win twice in a row in 1998 and 2003, let us look at the ones they won consecutively in 1993 and 1998. The congress won 30 seats consecutively in 1993 and 1998. Of these it won 11 in 2003 as we have discussed earlier and lost 19. The BJP won 15 seats consecutively in 1993 and 1998. Of these it won 10 in 2003 as we have discussed earlier and lost 5. Effectively what this shows is that the congress wins only 37% of the seats where it has ruled for 10 years while the BJP does that in close to 70% of their constituencies. This is a trend seen in many other states where the BJP rules except in Uttar Pradesh where too many regional players spoil the sport.

Now let us extend this analogy to seats which the parties have won consecutively in 1998 and 2003 using which we can predict the seats they are likely to win in 2008. BJP is facing elections in 10 seats where it has won for the past 2 elections in 98 and 2003. Similarly Congress is going in for polls in 8 seats where it has won elections in both 98 and 2003. Going by their past record in retaining seats they have won twice in a row, a very optimistic estimate is that the congress would retain 3 of the 8 and gift 5 to the BJP. The BJP on the other hand is well poised to retain 7 of the 10 seats while the congress might get 3 of those 10. Let us call these ‘A’ category seats. So far the Congress thus is most likely to win 11 of the A+ seats and retain 3 of it’s a category seats. It will also gain 3 A category seats the BJP might lose. This takes the INC tally to 17. The BJP will likely win 11 of the A+ seats and retain 7 of it’s Á category seats. It will also gain 5 A category seats the INC might lose. This takes the BJP tally to 22.

Some constituencies do constantly tend to vote out the ruling party. Now this is where anti-incumbency takes place. A good look at the voting trends will suggest that such a trend takes place only in 18 constituencies where the electorate keeps alternating between the INC and the BJP. To everybody’s surprise the congress hold 10 such seats now and the BJP 8. Hence the anti-incumbency wave is more likely to benefit the BJP thereby giving it a good chance to win 10 seats in 2008 and the congress just 8 on account of anti-incumbency.

Taking all these into account the tally for BJP is close to 32 and 25 for the congress. The BSP is likely to win 2 seats, the NCP and the GGP will get a seat each. Now what? Out of the 29 left, the BJP currently rules in 22 constituencies and the Congress in 7 of them. The BJP needs just 13 of the 29 seats left while the congress needs 20 of the 29. Most of these seats are either unpredictable or tossups (seats which have been won with very low margins). So the congress will have to win 20 of the 29 seats to have any chance of getting power in Chhattisgarh. By any standards this is a Himalayan Task. This is something that the congress has not done in the past 18 years anywhere in India, winning 70% of the seats in a crunch situation like this. The BJP needs to win only 44% of these seats to hold onto power (13 of the 29 where it rules in 22). The BJP’s task is not easy either, since Chhattisgarh is a tribal state and Mayawati might be looking to make some inroads there.

Interestingly if the Lok Sabha (National Level) elections are of any help in judging the scenario better, they only assert the above conclusion even more firmly. In 1991 when the BJP hardly had any presence in the area that constitutes Chhattisgarh the congress swept the polls winning all 11 lok sabha seats there. In 1996, the BJP won 6 seats and the congress won 4. In 1999 the BJP retained 5 of these 6 seats and went on to snatch an additional 2 seats from the congress and one from an independent making their tally 8 in 1999. The congress just managed a meager 3 lok sabha seats in 1999. In 2004 the BJP retained all the 8 seats it won in 1999 and went on to win 2 more seats from the congress taking its tally to 10 leaving the congress with just a single seat. These trends seem very similar to the State assembly elections.

The above analysis clearly shows that there have been no signs of strong anti incumbency in the constituencies which are now a part of Chhattisgarh neither in the state elections nor in the lok sabha elections. If we were to go by a statistical analysis the BJP has a clear advantage.


Madhya Pradesh


In 1993 and 1998 Madhya Pradesh had 320 constituencies of which 90 constituencies which form a part of the current state of Chhattisgarh. So any analysis with respect to the upcoming assembly election in Madhya Pradesh would make sense if we restrict our analysis to the 230 seats currently in Madhya Pradesh. In 1993 the INC won 120, the BJP in 87 and other parties won 23 seats. In 1998 the Congress won 124, the BJP 83 and others 23 seats. In 2003 the BJP won 173, the congress won 38 and others 11 seats. One does not see any clear trend here and can clearly reject anti-incumbency at the state level if not at the local level. If the congress could win elections consecutively in 1993 and 1998, why can the BJP not win in both 2003 and 2008?

Let us look at the A+ category seats for both parties (i.e.) seats they have won 3 times in a row. The congress has done this in 14 seats (1993, 1998 and 2003) and the BJP in a whooping 32 seats. This practically ensures 14 seats for the congress in 2008 and 32 for the BJP.

The second set of seats is the ones that parties have one twice in a row. Before we look at the constituencies which parties have managed to win twice in a row in 1998 and 2003, let us look at the ones they won consecutively in 1993 and 1998. The congress won 73 seats consecutively in 1993 and 1998. Of these it won 14 in 2003 as we have discussed earlier and lost 59. The BJP won 36 seats consecutively in 1993 and 1998. Of these it won 32 in 2003 as we have discussed earlier and lost 4. Effectively what this shows is that the congress wins only 20% of the seats where it has ruled for 10 years while the BJP does that in close to 90% of their constituencies. This just supports the trend we saw in Chhattisgarh.

Now let us extend this analogy to seats which the parties have won consecutively in 1998 and 2003 using which we can predict the seats they are likely to win in 2008. BJP is facing elections in 33 seats where it has won for the past 2 elections in 98 and 2003. Similarly Congress is going in for polls in 9 seats where it has won elections in both 98 and 2003. Going by their past record in retaining seats they have won twice in a row, a very optimistic estimate is that the congress would retain 2 of the 9 and gift 7 to the BJP. The BJP on the other hand is well poised to retain 30 of the 33 seats while the congress might get 3 of those 33. Let us call these ‘A’ category seats. So far the Congress thus win most likely win 14 of the A+ seats and retain 2 of it’s ‘A’ category seats. It will also gain 3 A category seats the BJP might lose. This takes the INC tally to 19. The BJP will likely win 32 of the A+ seats and retain 30 of it’s ‘A’ category seats. It will also gain 7 ‘A’ category seats the INC might lose. This takes the BJP tally to 69.

Some constituencies do constantly tend to vote out the ruling party. Now this is where anti-incumbency takes place. A good look at the voting trends will suggest that such a trend takes place only in 45 constituencies where the electorate keeps alternating between the INC and the BJP. Here there is a case for anti-incumbency favoring congress, but definitely not an extent that will help it win all the way. In the 45 constituencies that show a trend for strong anti-incumbency the BJP rules in 39 and the Congress in 6. So this gives the congress 39 seats and the BJP 6.

Taking all these into account the tally for BJP is close to 75 and 58 for the congress. Of the remaining 97 seats 19 are ruled by other parties. With the recent beating the Samajwadi party has taken and some Independents being traded by the big parties. So in all probability 6 of the 19 would be taken up by either the BJP or the INC in 2008. This leaves us with 84 seats (97-19 +6 =84). Among the BJP currently rules in 69 constituencies and the Congress in 9 of them. The BJP needs 40 of the 84 seats to get a majority on its own while the congress needs 57 of the 84.

This is again a Herculean task for the Congress. So the task is not easy for the BJP either. Many of these 84 constituencies are ones where the congress had won consecutively in 1993 and 1998 and gifted them to the BJP in 2003. These constituencies might just move back to the Congress if the party cadre there did not do much ground work. Most of these seats are either unpredictable or tossups (seats which have been won with very low margins). Something that might work for the BJP in its favor is the fact that Madhya Pradesh has been one of the states where the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme has been best implemented other than Rajasthan. The State governments in these two states (the BJP) can take considerable credit for this achievement. One big assumption in this analysis is that of the 45 constituencies showing an anti-incumbency trend, the congress will get all the 39 that the BJP rules now. If this assumption is proved wrong the tables turn around immediately. So it is not easy for either party and again if anything it is only more difficult for the congress to win the 57 of the 84 seats at 70% success rate compared to the BJP which needs close to 50% rate to win its 40 seats from the 84.

Again let us have a look at the Lok Sabha elections in this state. The BJP can have a big smile if they look at this (I am sure they know!!!!!!). In 1991 the INC won 16 and the BJP 12 of the 29 lok sabha seats there. In 1996, the BJP won 21 seats and the congress won a paltry 4. The BJP retained all 12 seats it won in 1991. In 1999 the BJP retained 17 of these 21 seats it won in 1996 and went on to win 4 additional seats making their tally 21 in 1999. The congress just again managed 8 lok sabha seats in 1999. In 2004 the BJP retained 20 of the 21 seats it won in 1999 and went on to win 5 more seats taking its tally to 25 leaving the congress with just 4 seats. 2009 Lok Sabha Elections will say if the congress has any future there.

The above analysis clearly shows that there have been no signs of strong anti incumbency in the constituencies which are now a part of Madhya Pradesh neither in the state elections nor in the lok sabha elections. If we were to go by a statistical analysis the BJP has a clear advantage. Rajasthan analysis should be up soon, I am too tired now to enter Vasundhara Raje’s Den.

Gujarat's future and Indian media's woes

Biased is one word that can describe Indian media perfectly. Looks like all of them are getting paid by the UPA sarkar at the center. Pankaj Vohra of HT goes to the extent of writing "BJP may have some slim chances in the forthcoming elections", IBNLive writes " Will Gujarat atone for the sins of the past".

Indian media has proved to be ignorant on two accounts, one is numbers and the other is judging people. Why is that your so called secular yard stick being applied only to the majority Hindus, why don't you question congress as to why they have an alliance with MIM in Hyderabad. The Hindu voter has always been an tolerant one, but if you go overboard he will punish you and this is what is happening. All their pre poll predictions are horribly wrong.

This election is going to be the worst defeat congress has ever faced in gujarat. While the media just predicts the opposite, in 2 months we all will know who is right. While no one talks about godhra, the manuvadi media will highlight post godhra every day. Dharm does not say that, if some fanatics burn your people, you stay quiet in your house. This is the modern definition of secularism for this media in india, but i am afraid, that the people of gujarat and slowly people all over the country dont seem to agree with this definition of secularism which has different yardsticks for the majority and minority. Mahabharat is again so very great and has a perfect instance to illustrate this:

Draupadi comes to the kurukshetra and Arjun is surprised to see her there. He says " Panchali, Ranbhoomi mein tumhara kya kaam hai". Draupadi says: " Mein kunti putr bheem ko yeh kast nahi dena chahthi hoon ki woh dushhasan ka lahu upablavya tak le aaya, aur us lahu ke bina tho mere khesh kule hi rehjayenge, aurphir jhesth kunti putr yudhistir koi teek thodi hai,kya pata unka man kab badal jaye aur woh tum logon se kahe, ki dharm shama hai aur shama hi dharm"

This translated reads:

Arjun: Draupadi, What are you doing in the battlefield?
Draupadi: I don't want to give Bheem (son of Kunti), the trouble of bringing dushhasan's blood all the way to upablavya, and my hair will remain untied without that blodd,moreover who knows about your elder brother (eldest son of Kunti) yudhistir, he might tell you all that dharm is forgiveness and forgiveness is dharm"

Then here is the stellar line that is valid against this media from the shastragni os that yuga-----------" Mein Dharm kis is paribasha aur tum logon ki beech tab tak khadi rahoongi jab tak mere yeh khesh band na hojate"

I will stand between you and this pseudo secular definition of dharm until my hair gets tied up again.

Now gujarat did not commit any sin for it to atone, it only reacted to what was inflicted on it. Gujarat and slowly the rest of India will stand between this so called pseudo secularism until justice is served to the majority.

Rajnithi

Welcome to the game where all players are some of the most devious minds ever to grace earth, yes guys the game is Indian politics. The most interesting game in Indian politics is now going on "Battle ground Uttar Pradesh". Can it get worse.

Do elections in the largest and most populated state of India stand for anything? Yes they do. Corruption, Casteism, Pseudo Secularism, Fanaticism, Vote Bank politics, Minority politics and abysmally low ethics set by politicians.

Who is to blame, it is not the politicians, it is we who elect the politicians, the people have to take the blame. Once elections are over, the feelings of caste and religion don’t emerge as much as topics of greater concern like governance, law and order, roads, water supply, electricity. When the election bell rings again, these factors play no role when the public decides to vote, it is back to caste, religion and social factors. It is because of this attitude of people that the ruling bureaucracy just does not cater to aspects of development and standards of living, rather it formulates policies that divide people even more, plays games with people’s sentiments so as to get itself a voter base for the next election.

All these factors surface to the core particularly in some states of India and the best example is Uttar Pradesh. For example just look at the voting pattern and concerns of people in states like Punjab, Uttarakand with states like UP and Bihar. Uttaranchal is a place less affected by caste and religious differences and the politicians pre poll campaign was rather more about issues like development and other constructive issues. But the foundations of the pre poll in UP started way back when Manmohan Singh made minority appeasement statements to BJP’s anti muslim hate campaign.

Rahul Gandhi does his part by adding oil to the fire from time to time with his irresponsible statements. The quota issue at the centre found such a long time even to reach a partial solution despite supreme courts stern orders due to this on going election in India’s most divided state. Regional parties wanted to make maximum mileage out of the quota issue for this ongoing election.

Yes, it is indeed surprising that a national party like congress is dancing to the tune of its allies on this issue, but one would argue, what stake does the congress have. It is not looking for bread packets in UP, all it is looking for is crumbs here and there so as to have a say when the pie is assembled. Affairs in the state are so disappointing that, whatever the outcome of the election, it is not going to be in favor of the people of the state. Democracy cannot have an uglier face than this. Even if a brute like Hitler ruled the state, it would have a better state of affairs than it has when clumsy parties like this run it.

One of the solutions to this cracking system (which in the first place was never stable when someone like Nehru donned the mantle), is to get rid of all these buggers and fill the parliament with educated young people who will do something constructive. But as I said before the onus is on the people, they need to think beyond petty politics of caste and religion and think as a fellow countryman. Every aam aadmi should feel proud to be an Indian and make a resolve to contribute his bit to the system. Instead of identifying oneself as a thakur or Brahmin or a dalit or a yadav, one should think as an Indian and say, I am just going to vote for the party that will provide me basic amenities, education and a good quality of life. The old saying goes “Yatha Raja Tatha Praja”, but now I think the ground reality is “ Yatha Praja Tatha Raja”. The day the people decide they need a clean government which will do something for them, the government officials are bound to do work, but if people decide to be stupid and keep creating divisions amongst themselves, the politician is going to be no better, in fact he responds by increasing the divide.

It is time to stand up and ask, who is responsible for the deplorable system in place, is it the people who are elected to power or the people who elect them.

You want to play a game: Frame the rules first

I am happy today, my mom guessed that when i called her. She did not even ask me "how are you", the 1st line was "i am sure you are very happy today" Supreme Court of India has ruled out the possibility of any back door entry for the so called OBC's of India into any of the Govt Run institutions in the country. And in statement which i had always expected it said "And finally, when the Centre said that this 27 per cent was additional seats which had been created so that no inconvenience should be caused to the General Category, then the SC said that these 27 per cent extra seats were created by the revenue generated by all the citizens of the country. Under Article 29, all the citizens have a right to this investment". Sometimes i think, it is the supreme court which has done it right, but if you go into the details, it is the people who filed the Writ petition against this government which wants to play vote bank politics.

Both the ruling coalition and the public have a lot to learn from this. First the public especially the people who dont vote but comment about the policies of the govt need to stop lamenting about govt policies, but instead they need to be pro active, vote and challenge the govt if they are not happy with it. The group headed by youth for equality did this and they got justice, and in fact once the movement started it found wide support.

I dont know if the centre is going to learn anything from this episode, start thinking beyond votes, think about the country. Put more money in primary education, let there be kendriya vidhyalayas (free govt run quality schools) everywhere. I am not sure how many kendriya vidhyalaya's there are now, but increase there number by 10 times. Acheive 100% literacy and then there is no need for any form of reservation.

I hope all this effort is just a step in the right direction as the Gita Says the following

" Vijay Anthim Lakshya Nahi hai, Anthim Lakshya hai Ek Swasth Naveen Ujwal Samaj ki Stapana aur Yahi Dharm hai. Dharm ke haath pakad kar us charam seema ki aur bado, wahan tak pounchna mahatva poorn nahi hai, mahatva hai yaatra ki disha, yadi disha teke, to koi na koi pedi us charam seema tak avashya pounch hi jayegi".

When Translated it reads " Victory is not the ultimate goal, the ultimate goal is to lay the foundation for a healthy, new and progressive society and this is the right way of life. Follow this way of life and head towards that goal, reaching there is not important, what is important is the direction in which you head there, if the direction is right, some generation would definitely reach the goal".

Kuch to log kahenge

"kuchh to log kahenge, logo kaa kaam hain kahanaa
chhodo, bekaar kee baato mein , kahee beet naa jaaye rainaa

kuchh reet jagat kee ayesee hai
har yek subah kee shaam huyee
too kaun hai, teraa naam hain kyaa
seetaa bhee yahaa badanaam huyee
fir kyo sansaar kee baaton se
bheeg gaye tere nainaa

hum ko jo taane dete hai
hum khoye hain in rang raliyon me
hum ne un ko bhee chhup chhup ke
aate dekhaa in galiyon me
ye sach hain zoothhee baat nahee
tum bolo ye sach hain naa"

Brilliant, this is a million dollar song. Anand Bakshi, Hats of to you for the lyrics and Kishore da, you are GOD!!!!. Just like if cricket was a religion, vivian richards would be the god, if music were one, kishore da you would be THE GOD.

Now coming to the song, doesn't it sound perfect, " kuchh to log kahenge, logo kaa kaam hain kahanaa chhodo, bekaar kee baato mein , kahee beet naa jaaye rainaa", most people dont follow it. If we were to follow it, life would be much easier, trust me. Yes, people talk, they keep talking and most of the time it is crap. If we should just stop listening, they will shut up one day, but just dont listen to them and waste your entire life.

The "i dont care" philosophy does seem to work after all, you dont need to be Ayn Rand's howard roark, but you can practically filter out 99% of the people around you. It works pretty well at the office, you dont need to care what your boss would think for everything you do. For a fact, if he is a smart guy,he just does not care what yo do as long as you work when it matters. Thinking about his reponse for everthing you do will only screw you in the end. It even leads to insomnia as i hear from some guys @@@@@@@. I HEAR.

If i can add to this great song, "Log to kehte rehte, jab tak tum apna kaan bandh nahi karoge, jab tumhare kaan bandh hojayenge, woh chup chap chalejayenge".

Well i dont know which new generation musician will write this poetically, but this is the essence.

Lesson for the day, "AS STATED ABOVE".

My obsession with cars

Porsche's, Ferrari's, Audi's are all I think of these days. I was recently having dinner with my ex-advisor at the University and he happened to mention "Murali, you have a nice car", and then I went on about the cars which I tested and the latest models and stuff, went on to confess that I was getting crazy about (cars) before I could complete it, the professor just completed it by saying "I can see that". I am just waiting for the day when I will my own Porsche 911 with a 6 speed manual gearbox. Well Ohio sucks with speed limits like 65, I hope to be driving it in Montana at 100 mph. My colleague Anna will join me there for sure, but i dont if she wants another drivers license rusticated. But at present I have no qualms about my Rav4 V6, it just rocks. Simply too stable, amazing power and a joy to ride. Too bad they dont make it with a stick-shift. Some things are better handled manually, anyway the typical lazy american wants a coffee in one hand and the steering in the other, so there goes the stick-shift in the bin. Amazingly almost entire Europe and Asia still seems to love the stick. Of course you dont want a machine to drag you along the Autobahn, you want it to be doing what you want.

after an year

I cant believe, I haven't scribbled on the net for almost an Year. Well it was no doubt an eventful year. I graduated, found a job, bought a nice new car, lost my love and I am still kicking. Life has definetely become more eventful and I am sure I will blog pretty often from now on.

I'll go for a recap of the year next time, but today let me just go over something interesting I encountered on the construction site today. The guys were apparently alabama union workers. Working in an field engineering firm like GRL Engineers has let me travel widely within the United States and I can say that I do know something about the disparity in the wages of labor across the country by now. I am not sure if the guys (I am not even referring to the foreman, I am just talking about the people who go up the leads hook up the hammer, do welding, put up bolts and nuts) in New Jersey were so exceptional that they make 75$ an hr, while in Alabama they make 10$ and hr and someone in seattle makes 20$ an hr. Weird isn't, I am yet to get a grasp of it, but all i know is that a technician in NJ makes quite a lot of dosh, even more than most engineers and a guy working at wendy's beats the guy who slogs his day out battling the scorching heat of alabama hands down. Well I guess it is all still better than the truck driver I met in seattle airport who casually mentioned that "I made 8000$ a week in california". damn it, thats a lot of money, freaking too much. anyway enough of this.

I would love to start writing about other issues that have been eating me up, but i'll save it for later.

humbling and beautiful

well, i have not written for quite a long time, actually was very very busy and yes the result was fruitful. very good results for the material i was trying to model.

but today just out curiosity, i tried to go beyond what was needed and encountered some beautiful but really complex mathematical functions after a very long time. how many times do you come across a situation when you have to find the inverse fourier transform of a function that has a compound inverted summation in the denominator.
the description looks crazy right, but the function has a beautiful meaning. abstract and applied math can be very humbling at times. this branch of science has always fascinated me. things can't get better, do you ever tend to love something when you cant solve it in the final step, math can get you to like it.

i still remember taking discrete math (i am a civil engineering student) during 3rd year at roorkee, well actually i dont want to share my experiances on that class, forget it.

funny crawls in you

have you ever noticed those funny feelings you have before something important for which you are all prepared. I am blogging now, and I have a very important meeting 2 hrs from now. it happens all the the time right, feels funny sometimes. your thoughts vaccilate from tense to feel free and sometimes people snap.

but I am enjoying it, and anyway let me go through my stuff for one last time, will write in detail later.

keeping things tidy

Well just recently got rid of a roach problem at my place. This is one thing I have never been able to do all my life "keeping things clean and tidy". I guess it is ingrained in certain people and just brazes across the rest for a few moments and then it's gone. well now I am in my room now with everything lying around me and none of thme in places where they are supposed to be. Sometimes I chuckle saying "its ok thats cool" and then one day I say "am I living in a ghetto".

You see, in india things are much easier this way, you never need to clean your room, there is always someone to do that (in most cases it being my mom). you can never afford such luxuries here i guess.

By the way yesterday i checked out the latest linux OS released, simply awesome. I guess it is time people start using linux ending the micrsoft monopoly. But I just dont see it in the near future. I ask my dept secratary "bermie why dont u use linux" and she is like "Ravi, what's that". These people can only relate a computer to the windows xp desktop and MS word and nothing more.

I used to be fond of computers and long lines of coding a long back and then never showed interest in it, but I always had appreciation for breakthrough coding and now let me at least use linux (i know linux pretty well, i assure you)

nilavum malarum

sounds nice right, nilavum malarum paadudhu, en ninaivil mayangi pesudhu, nilai marandhu marandhu paarpathellam ....

wonderful awesome, the song is so evergreen that i can keep listening to it all day. i wish i was back in India having a nice time with all my friends around. for the past few days this feeling has been rubbing on me.

India is going great guns and its economy is progressing exponentially. I dont want to just hear this, I want to be in the midst of this progressing India. People make a lot of plans and strategies when they plan to return to their homeland and I am no exception.

United States is super dooper, but makes me feel lonely even though my dept just has 8 grad students and we all know each other very well and dept time is real fun.

I was just talking to bart zalewski, a polish colleague of mine who too misses poland and then me and bart went for a long drive and bart was planning to start a construction business in poland. Ok not bad, i thought if tata is making 1 lac cars, let me make 1 lac effienciency houses for my country.

let me make another strategy.

finally found a way

well, Abaqus has been giving me a hard time for the past few days. the drive through nail problem was never converging.

Today I finally configured something and yes, it works. It fact works very well.

So after a long time with theoretical mechanics, i went into to some hardcore building const. experiments and now back to modeling things using FEA.

feels good when the model works.

i'll have fun today.

one of those nice mornings

Today cleveland is stunning, I got up early and walked over to my department with mild sun gazing over. Absolutely beautiful.

Getting up early is actually nice and then in the department andrew promised me his timber code so that i can get started with my wood experiments on monday. Anyway i was just consolidating my FEM models.

and here is a tribute to orson welles, accoriding me to one of the best movie makers of the century, not to undermine spielberg, but i feel he is no where near the genre of film makers like Hitchcock, Orson Welles and of course Stanley Kubrick. The lady from Shangai by welles was amazing, even beats "The Third man".

The movie dates back to 1949, when I think of that, it sometimes is irritating to look back at Indian movies of those days (not that they are any better these days), but why did Indian cinema always base itself on emotional drama. The general answer is the public likes that , and i vehmently feel that "the explanation is crap". Who on earth said that indians dont like crime and mystery woven plots, inefficiency on the director's part should not attributed to the taste of the public.

anway thats how it is..............

getting no where

Summer of the 1st year of graduate study where everyone tries their hand at research. well i did not have a great experiance i would say. my thirst for theoretical mechanics went on a high and there i was in the midst of viscoelastcity and plasticity. The abaqus model went begging for a few days and i was enjoy mechanics at its best. of course, i had an elementary model ready. then i talk to a couple of people who have had a lot of experiance on shear walls and they say what you are trying to model is almost impossible. they said i better start getting an experimental setup underway. now there i was at the height of frustration, wasted all summer, of course enjoyed mechanics, but then all my modeling using FEM has gone to the bin.

i guess i better be optimistic to come up with a breakthrough model and also do the experiments to verify that.

anyway my advisor will soon be here to guide me out, i hope i am heading somewhere even though there is something that tells me..................

Today was one of those days when I felt "oh my god what am I doing in life". It has been days since i did bakkar with anyone for a good length of time. My god this country makes life busy for people and puts in a mental barrier called privacy. I miss hostel life. Roorkee was so much fun, I want marwaha, sashi and F-99 back. LIfe without this at night 9 pm looks really difficult to me.

After dinner at 9 pm it starts, I am the guy who starts usually " Dude the system sucks, we never used our brains after clearing the entrance to come in here". And thats enough to trigger a discussion that encompasses so topics one can hardly think of. and all on the cosy bed there with some song for marwaha on the comp. Everytime the sem begins Marwaha says "abhe is bar phodna hai yaar kuch tho karna hai", I still remember these lines. And i knew how this determination used to fade away as time passes.

But we all finally landed ourselves in decent career platforms didn't we, we managed our way through with 4 years of bakkar. Who the hell said grad school life is good and United states is fun. Life sucks, at least cleveland, Ohio sucks big time and roorkee, uttaranchal, India ROCKS.

will continue cribbing later

admiring archimedes

What did this great greek brain give the world, 2 amazing laws in science without which we would still be fumbling in the pre industrial era. The law of buyoncy and the lever principle. I like the 2nd one more, because it is more thoughtful way in which archmides discovered it and of course it has also got to do with the fact that Applied strcutural mechanics is my major. The lever principle might look very elementary to a layman, but the way it was first formulated by archimedes is still astounding. He thought of the principle of virtual work during
232 B.C. when no one had thougt about such things. The statement "GIVE ME A PLACE TO STAND AND I WILL MOVE THE EARTH" was very thoughtful and confident statement from a man who the intricacies of what he was talking. I dont know why, but still such fundamental discoveries in mechanics look more convincing and show sheer talent than a new micromechanical tissue analysis or whatever!!!!!!!!!!

Humming Raaja's tune

These days nothing appeals to me more than the maestro's music. If only my pc could express it's emotions it would start crying " Oh my god again, this guy is playing karagattakaran for the 20th time today". Music keeps a man going and Illayaraja's music keeps a man rocking. "kamam thedum ulagile...nada thyagarajarum, onnai uruki uyiril vilakai erinaramma".... amazing lyrics. he is simply excellent the one and only raaja. Maestro says all musicians cheat people very well and the guy who cheats people better is called the better music director. 25 years this guy has given us flawless music and we never needed to listen to anything else right. I started becoming a raaja fan only during my final and 4th year at Roorkee and I am still exploring on and on the depth's of his tunes. will write more later.

Case Western Reserve University

Case Western Reserve University