The Myth about BJP facing anti-incumbency in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh

I have been reading a few articles by many so called political analysts on the forthcoming Lok Sabha (National Level) in 2009 and State Assembly elections in many Indian States in 2008. While many have differing conclusions on the final results of the elections, they all have a common line which reads “Congress should do its best to tap the anti-incumbency wave against the BJP in states like Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh”. While anti-incumbency does play a major role in Indian politics, it has been negated many times effectively, the most recent example being that of Narendra Modi (BJP) in Gujarat which might well have a lot of resonance all over the country.


Chhattisgarh

Let us analyze each of these three states beginning with Chhattisgarh. From the state assembly election perspective the state has 90 constituencies all of which were part of Madhya Pradesh prior to 2001. Anti-incumbency is a phenomenon that takes place at local constituency level and not at a state or national level. It might well be the case that local anti-incumbency often culminates to the case of a state level or national level change of government. BJP is a party that shot into fame in 1991 and so it would be wise to statistically analyze all elections after 1991 before making any conclusions about the political fortunes of either the Indian National Congress (INC) or the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

In 1993, in the 90 constituencies which form a part of the current state of Chhattisgarh the INC won in 54, the BJP in 30 and other parties won 6 seats. In 1998 the Congress won 48, the BJP 36 and others 6 seats. In 2003 the BJP won 50, the congress won 37 and others 3 seats. Now here one begins to wonder where the anti-incumbency factor these analysts are talking about stemming from is. My answer is simple “There is no anti-incumbency factor in Chhattisgarh”. The only trend I can see here is that the BJP is increasing its seat share every time. Another interesting trend one should notice is that BJP tends to retain many of its seats. When I talk about retaining seats, I am not talking about winning 5 seats in an election and winning 5 entirely different seats in the next and claiming that the seat share has not gone down. A good trend for any party is to retain seats it won in the previous election meaning that voters in that constituency have faith in them. So from the 3 elections we can arrive at some interesting conclusions.

It is definitely an achievement for a party to retain a seat 3 times consecutively. It reflects either on the capability of the leader in the area or the party organization there. The congress has done this in 11 seats (1993, 1998 and 2003) and the BJP in 10 seats. It would not be unreasonable to assume in Indian politics that in such scenarios the party ends up winning the seat the fourth time also unless something exceptional happens. This ensures 11 seats for the congress in 2008 and 10 for the BJP. Let us denote these as A+ category seats.

The second set of seats is the ones that parties have one twice in a row. Before we look at the constituencies which parties have managed to win twice in a row in 1998 and 2003, let us look at the ones they won consecutively in 1993 and 1998. The congress won 30 seats consecutively in 1993 and 1998. Of these it won 11 in 2003 as we have discussed earlier and lost 19. The BJP won 15 seats consecutively in 1993 and 1998. Of these it won 10 in 2003 as we have discussed earlier and lost 5. Effectively what this shows is that the congress wins only 37% of the seats where it has ruled for 10 years while the BJP does that in close to 70% of their constituencies. This is a trend seen in many other states where the BJP rules except in Uttar Pradesh where too many regional players spoil the sport.

Now let us extend this analogy to seats which the parties have won consecutively in 1998 and 2003 using which we can predict the seats they are likely to win in 2008. BJP is facing elections in 10 seats where it has won for the past 2 elections in 98 and 2003. Similarly Congress is going in for polls in 8 seats where it has won elections in both 98 and 2003. Going by their past record in retaining seats they have won twice in a row, a very optimistic estimate is that the congress would retain 3 of the 8 and gift 5 to the BJP. The BJP on the other hand is well poised to retain 7 of the 10 seats while the congress might get 3 of those 10. Let us call these ‘A’ category seats. So far the Congress thus is most likely to win 11 of the A+ seats and retain 3 of it’s a category seats. It will also gain 3 A category seats the BJP might lose. This takes the INC tally to 17. The BJP will likely win 11 of the A+ seats and retain 7 of it’s Á category seats. It will also gain 5 A category seats the INC might lose. This takes the BJP tally to 22.

Some constituencies do constantly tend to vote out the ruling party. Now this is where anti-incumbency takes place. A good look at the voting trends will suggest that such a trend takes place only in 18 constituencies where the electorate keeps alternating between the INC and the BJP. To everybody’s surprise the congress hold 10 such seats now and the BJP 8. Hence the anti-incumbency wave is more likely to benefit the BJP thereby giving it a good chance to win 10 seats in 2008 and the congress just 8 on account of anti-incumbency.

Taking all these into account the tally for BJP is close to 32 and 25 for the congress. The BSP is likely to win 2 seats, the NCP and the GGP will get a seat each. Now what? Out of the 29 left, the BJP currently rules in 22 constituencies and the Congress in 7 of them. The BJP needs just 13 of the 29 seats left while the congress needs 20 of the 29. Most of these seats are either unpredictable or tossups (seats which have been won with very low margins). So the congress will have to win 20 of the 29 seats to have any chance of getting power in Chhattisgarh. By any standards this is a Himalayan Task. This is something that the congress has not done in the past 18 years anywhere in India, winning 70% of the seats in a crunch situation like this. The BJP needs to win only 44% of these seats to hold onto power (13 of the 29 where it rules in 22). The BJP’s task is not easy either, since Chhattisgarh is a tribal state and Mayawati might be looking to make some inroads there.

Interestingly if the Lok Sabha (National Level) elections are of any help in judging the scenario better, they only assert the above conclusion even more firmly. In 1991 when the BJP hardly had any presence in the area that constitutes Chhattisgarh the congress swept the polls winning all 11 lok sabha seats there. In 1996, the BJP won 6 seats and the congress won 4. In 1999 the BJP retained 5 of these 6 seats and went on to snatch an additional 2 seats from the congress and one from an independent making their tally 8 in 1999. The congress just managed a meager 3 lok sabha seats in 1999. In 2004 the BJP retained all the 8 seats it won in 1999 and went on to win 2 more seats from the congress taking its tally to 10 leaving the congress with just a single seat. These trends seem very similar to the State assembly elections.

The above analysis clearly shows that there have been no signs of strong anti incumbency in the constituencies which are now a part of Chhattisgarh neither in the state elections nor in the lok sabha elections. If we were to go by a statistical analysis the BJP has a clear advantage.


Madhya Pradesh


In 1993 and 1998 Madhya Pradesh had 320 constituencies of which 90 constituencies which form a part of the current state of Chhattisgarh. So any analysis with respect to the upcoming assembly election in Madhya Pradesh would make sense if we restrict our analysis to the 230 seats currently in Madhya Pradesh. In 1993 the INC won 120, the BJP in 87 and other parties won 23 seats. In 1998 the Congress won 124, the BJP 83 and others 23 seats. In 2003 the BJP won 173, the congress won 38 and others 11 seats. One does not see any clear trend here and can clearly reject anti-incumbency at the state level if not at the local level. If the congress could win elections consecutively in 1993 and 1998, why can the BJP not win in both 2003 and 2008?

Let us look at the A+ category seats for both parties (i.e.) seats they have won 3 times in a row. The congress has done this in 14 seats (1993, 1998 and 2003) and the BJP in a whooping 32 seats. This practically ensures 14 seats for the congress in 2008 and 32 for the BJP.

The second set of seats is the ones that parties have one twice in a row. Before we look at the constituencies which parties have managed to win twice in a row in 1998 and 2003, let us look at the ones they won consecutively in 1993 and 1998. The congress won 73 seats consecutively in 1993 and 1998. Of these it won 14 in 2003 as we have discussed earlier and lost 59. The BJP won 36 seats consecutively in 1993 and 1998. Of these it won 32 in 2003 as we have discussed earlier and lost 4. Effectively what this shows is that the congress wins only 20% of the seats where it has ruled for 10 years while the BJP does that in close to 90% of their constituencies. This just supports the trend we saw in Chhattisgarh.

Now let us extend this analogy to seats which the parties have won consecutively in 1998 and 2003 using which we can predict the seats they are likely to win in 2008. BJP is facing elections in 33 seats where it has won for the past 2 elections in 98 and 2003. Similarly Congress is going in for polls in 9 seats where it has won elections in both 98 and 2003. Going by their past record in retaining seats they have won twice in a row, a very optimistic estimate is that the congress would retain 2 of the 9 and gift 7 to the BJP. The BJP on the other hand is well poised to retain 30 of the 33 seats while the congress might get 3 of those 33. Let us call these ‘A’ category seats. So far the Congress thus win most likely win 14 of the A+ seats and retain 2 of it’s ‘A’ category seats. It will also gain 3 A category seats the BJP might lose. This takes the INC tally to 19. The BJP will likely win 32 of the A+ seats and retain 30 of it’s ‘A’ category seats. It will also gain 7 ‘A’ category seats the INC might lose. This takes the BJP tally to 69.

Some constituencies do constantly tend to vote out the ruling party. Now this is where anti-incumbency takes place. A good look at the voting trends will suggest that such a trend takes place only in 45 constituencies where the electorate keeps alternating between the INC and the BJP. Here there is a case for anti-incumbency favoring congress, but definitely not an extent that will help it win all the way. In the 45 constituencies that show a trend for strong anti-incumbency the BJP rules in 39 and the Congress in 6. So this gives the congress 39 seats and the BJP 6.

Taking all these into account the tally for BJP is close to 75 and 58 for the congress. Of the remaining 97 seats 19 are ruled by other parties. With the recent beating the Samajwadi party has taken and some Independents being traded by the big parties. So in all probability 6 of the 19 would be taken up by either the BJP or the INC in 2008. This leaves us with 84 seats (97-19 +6 =84). Among the BJP currently rules in 69 constituencies and the Congress in 9 of them. The BJP needs 40 of the 84 seats to get a majority on its own while the congress needs 57 of the 84.

This is again a Herculean task for the Congress. So the task is not easy for the BJP either. Many of these 84 constituencies are ones where the congress had won consecutively in 1993 and 1998 and gifted them to the BJP in 2003. These constituencies might just move back to the Congress if the party cadre there did not do much ground work. Most of these seats are either unpredictable or tossups (seats which have been won with very low margins). Something that might work for the BJP in its favor is the fact that Madhya Pradesh has been one of the states where the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme has been best implemented other than Rajasthan. The State governments in these two states (the BJP) can take considerable credit for this achievement. One big assumption in this analysis is that of the 45 constituencies showing an anti-incumbency trend, the congress will get all the 39 that the BJP rules now. If this assumption is proved wrong the tables turn around immediately. So it is not easy for either party and again if anything it is only more difficult for the congress to win the 57 of the 84 seats at 70% success rate compared to the BJP which needs close to 50% rate to win its 40 seats from the 84.

Again let us have a look at the Lok Sabha elections in this state. The BJP can have a big smile if they look at this (I am sure they know!!!!!!). In 1991 the INC won 16 and the BJP 12 of the 29 lok sabha seats there. In 1996, the BJP won 21 seats and the congress won a paltry 4. The BJP retained all 12 seats it won in 1991. In 1999 the BJP retained 17 of these 21 seats it won in 1996 and went on to win 4 additional seats making their tally 21 in 1999. The congress just again managed 8 lok sabha seats in 1999. In 2004 the BJP retained 20 of the 21 seats it won in 1999 and went on to win 5 more seats taking its tally to 25 leaving the congress with just 4 seats. 2009 Lok Sabha Elections will say if the congress has any future there.

The above analysis clearly shows that there have been no signs of strong anti incumbency in the constituencies which are now a part of Madhya Pradesh neither in the state elections nor in the lok sabha elections. If we were to go by a statistical analysis the BJP has a clear advantage. Rajasthan analysis should be up soon, I am too tired now to enter Vasundhara Raje’s Den.