Current Political scene in India-Mahabharata Repeated

Well, this has been a very happening year for Indian politics. That is pretty much what I followed all throughout the year. To put it in a nutshell, this is the 1st year when I followed India’s political drama unfold on a day to day basis.

I had a lot of expectation from Manmohan Singh the financial expert, but I thought he would be an able prime minister too. But he proved to be a disaster especially in 2007 and early 2008. He might have well brought an end to the congress party itself though the party members always deny such speculations. Let us just analyze the fortunes of some major political parties in India and the way they performed in 2007-08 and what implications these results will have in the near future.

It all started with the land of warriors, Punjab. Despite all the allegations by Amarinder Singh and other congress workers, the Akali Dal and BJP had a resounding victory. It was too bad that Dr. Singh could not go there with Sonia Gandhi and say we will introduce Urdu in schools. They could not manufacture any divisive card as this one of India’s most educated states, where the Sikhs and the Hindus live in complete harmony. I am sure Uttaranchal did not want to see the face of the congress anymore either and they voted BJP to power.

With UP under Mayawati, Gujarat with Modi and Himachal; back with BJP, does the Congress have any hold over North India anymore? Let us just look at India’s political map from the north all the way to Tamil Nadu excluding the north eastern states (not because we can neglect them, but simply because their representation in the Lok Sabha is minimal and hence they don’t affect the political map much). The south was the congress bastion, they lost Karnataka now. The BJP finally breached the vindhyas to conquer Karnataka.

Jammu and Kashmir had a weird political combination of PDP and Congress which had its own troughs. The congress has a bunch of morons dictating terms to its workers. The congress got its seats in J&K from the Jammu area, not from the valley. Now not a single Hindu in J&K will vote for congress. They have basically gifted 2 seats to the BJP in the state in the Lok Sabha elections in 2009. They might have well alienated the Hindus all over the country too if the VHP launches a violent agitation. The majority of the Muslims in India live in UP, Bihar and West Bengal and the congress has virtually no base in those 3 states anymore. The BJP has wrested Himachal, Punjab, Uttaranchal, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Karnataka. It has very stable allies in JD (U) and BJD in Bihar and Orissa respectively. It is very unlikely to lose power through anti-incumbency in Bihar and Orissa because you don’t come across leaders like Nitish Kumar and Naveen Patnaik very often. The congress just has presence in Haryana and Delhi. Both these states go for elections soon and in all probability the congress will be voted out just as they were in the Delhi municipal polls conducted recently.

The big question before them is “How likely is the BJP to hold power in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh”. Vasundara Raje has adopted Modi’s policy in her cabinet also by shuffling a lot of ministers before the forthcoming assembly elections so as to negate the anti-incumbency factor. She might have not handled the Gujjar situation very well, but the electoral calculation behind this is worth a look. Gujjar’s make up hardly 3% of Rajasthan’s population. Moreover they are spread out over the state not making them influential in any particular constituency unlike the meenas who opposed the benefits for the gujjars. Mrs. Raje has proved to be a very able administrator and she has carved out a niche for herself in Rajasthan. There are some similarities between the administration in Gujarat and Rajasthan in terms of development. A zero fiscal deficit, increased state output and similar factors. One very important issue the current BJP government has addressed in the state is the drinking water problem. The swajaldhara project may have its own deficiencies, but it is a bold project in its own right. The unemployment rate has gone down and the state has got a face lift. She has been smart enough not to replicate a Chandra babu model of just developing pockets of growth. She has invested time in making changes at the grass root level. These changes are not reflected in one day; they take time, but then 80% of the electorate lives in this belt and are likely to stick with the ruling government. In terms of numbers, things can only get worse for the congress with mayawati cutting into their dalit vote-bank.


A few days back I read a very interesting article on whether the BJP will campaign in prose or poetry for the 2009 Lok Sabha elections. The author was indeed very right in out rightly rejecting the possibility of any congressman campaigning with any style at all. Well things look even worse for the party now. In 2004 it was all quite dicey for the average voter. He did not know who he was voting for. The end result was that congress got a marginal lead over the BJP. Mind you, the congress did not defeat the BJP, they just managed 7 seats more. Even a single state like Gujarat can turn the tables around. The congress got an all time high of 12 seats in 2004 and the BJP got an all time low of 14. They can well forget this in 2009. Coming back to the point, does the congress even have a prime ministerial candidate? Its too bad that NDTV cannot endorse Dr. Manmohan Singh to the aam aadmi. The last time they got away marginally and the anti-incumbency BJP was facing helped them. This time the dreaded word anti-incumbency haunts the congress. Their appeasement policy over the 4 years is going to cost them dear. There was an article on Moditva and the Shrinking space of Hindu Liberalism. This is exactly the causative effect that the congress has created. Whether it will push all the majority votes towards the saffron alliance remains to be seen.

The Congress faces a dozen issues on lack of any development, corruption, excessive minority appeasement and inflation. They have also had a string of losses in state assembly elections and by-elections. Is this the beginning of the end of the grand old party of India? But apart from all these problems the million dollar question that the party faces is “Who is their future leader”? Manmohan Singh was never their leader in the first place and he definitely did not prove to be one during his tenure at the center. Narendra Modi rightly said in one of his speeches in Gujarat “Do you know that we have a prime minister-his name is Manmohan Singh”. Neither does Manmohan Singh have an all party appeal like Vajpayee nor does he have the charisma to attract voters. In fact there will be a lot of dissidence within the congress if he is made the prime minister again. It will be a suicidal move if Sonia Gandhi is announced as the prime ministerial candidate. Not only will such a move give rise to constitutional issues, even the thought of such an idea can prove fatal for the congress with the BJP campaigning in the Hindi belt on the contentious issues like Ram Sethu, Terrorism and related issues. This is going to be one of the biggest issues the congress will face. Who is going to be India’s Prime minister if the congress is elected to power. Well, the congress can only hope to survive with its allies in the UPA who are already breaking away. The congress currently has just over 50% of the seats in the UPA.

It will be interesting to see if its allies agree to a congressman as the prime minister again as in all probability the share of the seats for the congress in the UPA is bound to fall. All these are issues that arise only if the UPA manages to grab power, the chances of which are beginning to look very bleak. If they fancy any chances of even managing the three figure mark, they need to project a prime minister. The BJP or rather the NDA has zeroed in on L.K Advani. We all know what Advani stands for at least a decade ago. It is good for the NDA if Advani declares what he stands for today. I am sure they will at some point before the elections. In fact Advani is already beginning give the NDA a campaign policy and is speaking a lot on development issues and inflation. He is ideally taking the NDA and the BJP along a centrist platform slowly and carefully, so that he does not disillusion the core BJP voters. Statesman Advani is clearly articulating a brilliant agenda wherein the BJP/NDA will retain the core voters as well as pull in many undecided voters.

Irrespective of the debacle that the congress faces within the UPA, once can be rest assured that the congress nominee is going to represent the UPA minus the Left. This leaves us with Rahul Gandhi. He sadly seems to attract only crowds but not any votes. Just imagine the furor it is going to create in the UPA if he is nominated the candidate. The mainstream media will never tell you these issues in the ruling government. They are rather busy talking about the allies that left the NDA 3 years ago. In fact I can only see the NDA getting stronger. They have very strong allies in JD (Bihar), SAD, BJD. All issues with the Shiv-Sena have been sorted out for after all, BJP and Shiv-Sena are two sides of the same coin. The media was so quick to pounce on the small difference they had over the presidential election. It just turned out to be a non-issue finally. This leaves us with some of the parties who seemed to drift towards the day dreaming third front. The left would still like to keep the idea of a third front alive, but it does not seem to realize that the UNPA does not have a single party that can cross the three figure mark. Let us look at some of the political moves of parties that were allegedly a part of UNPA. Jayalalitha’s AIADMK was among the first parties to openly quit the UNPA and any novice in politics can read through her intentions of joining the NDA clearly. The INLD is well on its way to supporting the NDA. All the INLD leaders were present at the swearing ceremonies in Gujarat and Himachal. The AGP in Assam also is all set to go in for a seat sharing agreement with the BJP in future. The TDP is the only major party that left the NDA currently with UNPA. But they hardly have numbers and once the election results come out, it is not going to be long before the TDP comes flocking back to the NDA with external support.

The media would have you to believe that anti-incumbency will remove BJP out of MP, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan. While these are totally speculative, one forgets the fact that the state assembly elections in these states has had no effect whatsoever on the Lok Sabha polls in these areas. Whether it is Digvijay Singh or Chauhan, MP and Chhattisgarh have always voted for BJP in the Lok Sabha elections. The same is the case in Rajasthan too. Even when congress was ruling at the state level, these states have consistently favored a BJP government at the center. So now which kind of anti-incumbency is the mainstream media talking about? In fact the congress is bound to lose all its seats in Delhi and also Maharashtra in a big way.

“My Life My Country – Lal Kishen Advani”, the book has further stepped up Advani’s stature. It would be political blunder by the congress if it attempts to play around here because that is akin to playing with fire. This congress game of not announcing their candidate in any election is going to cost them dear. Gone are those hey days of the grand old party when people knew who would be their leader if the party was voted to power. Now neither do we know their chief ministerial or prime ministerial candidates nor do they seem to show any intention of announcing their candidates.

And now the fun begins!!!!!

Now the stage is all set. The seed of change has sprouted out of the state of Gujarat. I am not overstating if I optimistically claim that the country’s political contours are changed forever. In my previous article I have categorically rejected the anti-incumbency factor spoiling BJP’S chances in the 2008 state assembly elections in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. I just don’t get it, people just keep writing about electoral prospects of various parties without even knowing an iota of what happened 5 years ago in the previous election. In all probability the NDA is all set to regain power even without the need of any external support. Now the NDA has unanimously anointed LK Advani as the prime minister. There is no denying the fact that he does deserve it, but I guess he should ideally stay in the post for a couple of years when Narendra Modi can adorn the chair of the home minister. Beyond two years, he will be really stretching it. I guess at that stage Advani would be gracious enough to step down and let Modi take over. Now then the fun begins. Clean administration, focus on infrastructure, zero tolerance towards terror and above all a slow sense of pride in nationalism. This year is really an “AGNI-PARIKSHA” for the BJP. If they can retain these three states and win Delhi assembly there is no stopping on their way to New Delhi.