Narayan ke Darshan kaun karwayega

In the dwaparayuga, Guru Drona said "Arjun tho woh Nar hai jo Narayan ke darshan karwayega", and the question is "Bharath ko is Kaliyug mein Narayan ke darshan kaun karwayega"? Jiske naam mein Nar tho hai hi, aur jo narayan ka bhakth bhi hai aur jo is mahan desh mein ram rajya stapith kar saktha hai wahi humhe Narayan ke darshan bhi karwayega. The answer in short is my political idol "NARENDRA MODI".

The guy has all the qualities of a great leader and is viciously maligned by the pseudo secular media. Now the stage is all set. The seed of change has sprouted out of the state of Gujarat. I am not overstating if I optimistically claim that the country’s political contours are changed forever. In my previous article I have categorically rejected the anti-incumbency factor spoiling BJP’S chances in the 2008 state assembly elections in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. I just don’t get it, people just keep writing about electoral prospects of various parties without even knowing an iota of what happened 5 years ago in the previous election. In all probability the NDA is all set to regain power even without the need of any external support. Now the NDA has unanimously anointed LK Advani as the prime minister. There is no denying the fact that he does deserve it, but I guess he should ideally stay in the post for a couple of years when Narendra Modi can adorn the chair of the home minister. Beyond two years, he will be really stretching it. I guess at that stage Advani would be gracious enough to step down and let Modi take over. Now then the fun begins. Clean administration, focus on infrastructure, zero tolerance towards terror and above all a slow sense of pride in nationalism. This year is really an “AGNI-PARIKSHA” for the BJP. If they can retain these three states and manage to win or even end up as the single largest party in Karnataka, there is no stopping on their way to New Delhi.

The only mass leader who had the guts and the poise to promise us this after the bombay blasts in 2006. Modi tho yeh pratigya kiya "Yeh jo koon bahaya, yeh awashya rang layega". Maharaj Bharat ki Vanshaj will inspire India to new heights and "Mia Musharaff, Kashmir ko kya, pakistan ko hi bhooljao".

Jai Hind

Come watch the semi-finals in karnataka

This ought to be the biggest state election before the Lok Sabha Elections next year. From an party and people stand point of view, karnataka has all the elements that make up a national election. Two main parties, a spoiler who does not let a party have a simple majority. The demographics of karnataka also roughly resemble that of India in terms of caste and religion. The north of karnataka is a BJP stronghold and the south has congress and JD(S) strongholds. This is just a mini India. Well in any event, this is going to be first state election that is going to put my analysis to test. I just hope it does not come a cropper.

Here is my take

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pkMyOUr8Pm30iCYUie3dPKA

U means Unpredictable (no discernible trend in such seats and too much trading)

Tossup means seats which are fought on very close margins.

Here are some analysis stats

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pkMyOUr8Pm30NYoCTL_MaRQ

That has a bit of vote share calculations and trend lines.

Among the tossups and unpredictable seats left (86) BJP needs to wrest 27. I am not able to exactly predict what kind of a vote share is needed to wrest that 27. Of the 86 seats 42 are tossups meaning fought on close margins.

Of these 42 seats, BJP is a strong competitor in 30 seats as the remaining 12 are close contests between congress and JD(S). Well they would extremely lucky if they can get the 27 seats from those tossups without having to depend on those 44 unpredictable seats.

Of the 44 unpredictable seats the BJP is in contention for 22 of them. They should not expect more than 5. Ideally they should get 22 of the tossups and try 5 of the unpredictables.

I just have a gut feeling that they will end up with something in the range of 105-110 seats which might end up as a parody unless independents get 5-10 seats. If JD(S) or congress have a say even after BJP gets 100+ seats its disaster again for karnataka.